Sunday, August 7, 2016

Space Weather Update

Yesterday’s enhanced solar wind velocity at Earth (from a high speed stream) caused the  >0.8 MeV energetic electron flux to cross the threshold of 10^5 pfu (particle flux units). It crossed at 2016-08-06T13:30Z and rose to 120000 pfu. Electron flux offers information about the state of the Earth’s outer radiation belt.

Credit: NASA

Current electron flux levels are below threshold but still enhanced ( >80000 pfu).

Today there has been 5 flares of C1.0 or above, one of which was an M1.3 flare, peaking at 14:44Z. As of yet, no resulting Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

MAG4’s full-disk 24-hour solar flare probability outlook predicts a 2% chance of M/X class flares. ASAP's 24-hour solar flare probability outlook predicts a 6% chance of M-class flares from NOAA active region 2571 (with a 1% chance of X-class), and a 2% chance of M-class flares from the 2570/2572 active region complex (with a 1% chance of X-class).

Today’s KP <= 4. We are not currently expecting any strong KP enhancements from Earth-directed CMEs, however, it is likely that the high speed stream that arrived at STEREO A at 2016-08-04T02:00Z will also impact Earth. It’s anticipated arrival at Earth is predicted for the morning of August 14 (2016-08-14T09:12Z).

Credit: Barbara Thompson/ iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov
Above is an image of the coronal hole that caused the high speed stream at STEREO A. The prediction for when the high speed stream will arrive at Earth was determined by calculating the number of days it will take for the sun to rotate to the point where this coronal hole is facing Earth and in the correct position for the high speed stream to travel towards our planet.